For many in the U.K., the pandemic may as well be over.
Mask requirements have been dropped. Free mass testing is a thing of the past. And for the first time since spring 2020, people can go abroad for holidays without ordering tests or filling out lengthy forms.
That sense of freedom is widespread even as infections soared in Britain in March, driven by the milder but more transmissible omicron BA.2 variant that’s rapidly spreading around Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere.
The situation in the U.K. may portend what lies ahead for other countries as they ease coronavirus restrictions.
France and Germany have seen similar spikes in infections in recent weeks, and the number of hospitalizations in the U.K. and France has again climbed — though the number of deaths per day remains well below levels seen earlier in the pandemic.
In the U.S., more and more Americans are testing at home, so official case numbers are likely a vast undercount. The roster of those newly infected include actors and politicians, who are tested regularly. Cabinet members, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Broadway actors and the governors of New Jersey and Connecticut have all tested positive.
Britain stands out in Europe because it ditched all mitigation policies in February, including mandatory self-isolation for those infected. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s conservative government is determined to stick to its “living with COVID” plan, but experts disagree on whether the country is coping well.
Some scientists argue it’s the right time to accept that “living with COVID” means tolerating a certain level of disruption and deaths, much like we do for seasonal flu. Others believe that Britain’s government lifted restrictions too quickly and too soon. They warned that deaths and hospital admissions could keep rising because more people over 55 — those who are most likely to get seriously ill from COVID-19 — are now getting infected despite high levels of vaccination.
Hospitals are again under strain, both from patients with the virus and huge numbers of staff off sick, said National Health Service medical director Stephen Powis.
“Blinding ourselves to this level of harm does not constitute living with a virus infection — quite the opposite,” said Stephen Griffin, a professor in medicine at the University of Leeds. “Without sufficient vaccination, ventilation, masking, isolation and testing, we will continue to ‘live with’ disruption, disease and sadly, death, as a result.”
Others, like Paul Hunter, a medicine professor at the University of East Anglia, are more supportive of the government’s policies.
“We’re still not at the point where (COVID-19) is going to be least harmful … but we’re over the worst,” he said. Once a high vaccination rate is achieved there is little value in maintaining restrictions such as social distancing because “they never ultimately prevent infections, only delay them,” he argued.
Britain’s official statistics agency estimated that almost 5 million U.K. residents, or 1 in 13, had the virus in late March, the most it had reported. Separately, the REACT study from London’s Imperial College said its data showed that the country’s infection levels in March were 40% higher than the first omicron peak in January.
Infection rates are so high that airlines had to cancel flights during the busy two-week Easter break because too many workers were calling in sick.
France and Germany have seen similar surges as restrictions eased in most European countries. More than 100,000 people in France were testing positive every day despite a sharp dropoff in testing, and the number of virus patients in intensive care rose 22% over the past week.
President Emmanuel Macron’s government, keen to encourage voter turnout in April elections, is not talking about any new restrictions.
In Germany, infection levels have drifted down from a recent peak. But Health Minister Karl Lauterbach backed off a decision to end mandatory self-isolation for infected people just two days after it was announced. He said the plan would send a “completely wrong” signal that “either the pandemic is over or the virus has become significantly more harmless than was assumed in the past.”
In the U.S., outbreaks at Georgetown University and Johns Hopkins University are bringing back mask requirements to those campuses as officials seek out quarantine space.
Across Europe, only Spain and Switzerland have joined the U.K. in lifting self-isolation requirements for at least some infected people.
But many European countries have eased mass testing, which will make it much harder to know how prevalent the virus is. Britain stopped distributing free rapid home tests this month.
Julian Tang, a flu virologist at the University of Leicester, said that while it’s important to have a surveillance program to monitor for new variants and update the vaccine, countries cope with flu without mandatory restrictions or mass testing.
“Eventually, COVID-19 will settle down to become more endemic and seasonal, like flu,” Tang said. “Living with COVID, to me, should mimic living with flu.”
Cambridge University virologist Ravindra Gupta is more cautious. Mortality rates for COVID-19 are still far higher than seasonal flu and the virus causes more severe disease, he warned. He would have preferred “more gentle easing of restrictions.”
“There’s no reason to believe that a new variant would not be more transmissible or severe,” he added.
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Geir Moulson and Kirsten Grieshaber in Berlin, Angela Charlton in Paris, Barry Hatton in Lisbon and other AP journalists around Europe contributed to this report.
Total Doses Distributed = 710,119,345. Total Doses Administered = 565,162,367. Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses = 256,151,498. Number of People Fully Vaccinated = 218,319,564.
China’s largest city of Shanghai will soon begin lifting lockdown in communities that report no positive cases within 14 days after another round of COVID-19 testing, authorities said Saturday.
The fresh round of testing comes as the city reported about 23,000 cases on Saturday, most of them asymptomatic. Large swathes of Shanghai, with a population of 26 million, have been under lockdown since March 28, leading to complaints from residents about shortages of food and basic necessities.
Separately, Guangzhou authorities announced that the city northwest of Hong Kong would also begin mass testing its 18 million residents, according to central broadcaster CCTV. The city reported only two confirmed infections on Friday.
Under the new measures, areas in Shanghai will be classified as “precautionary,” “controlled” on “locked down,” depending on the results of the latest round of testing, Shanghai Vice Mayor Zong Ming told a news conference.
Residents in areas deemed to be “precautionary” with no infections within the last two weeks will be able to move around their district, although gatherings will still be restricted. Meanwhile, in “controlled” areas, residents can move around in their neighborhoods, which are smaller than districts, while “locked down” areas will require everyone to stay at home.
During the news conference, Zong choked up with emotion, saying that she was moved by the efforts of residents and front-line workers. “There is still a big gap from everyone’s expectations. We will do our best to improve it,” she said.
The city has built over 100 makeshift hospitals to treat COVID-19 patients with over 160,000 beds.
But the harsh restrictions on movement have also tested residents’ patience. Some have received government food packages containing meat and vegetables. Many, however, are struggling to obtain rice and other basics, with online vendors sold out and delivery services unable to keep up with demand.
China is facing one of its worst local outbreaks since the pandemic began.
It is one of the only countries sticking to a “zero COVID” policy, taking drastic measures such as lockdowns and mass testing to identify and isolate every single case. China is still closed to international travel, even as most of the world has sought ways to live with the virus.
Total Doses Distributed = 710,119,045. Total Doses Administered = 564,572,230. Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses = 256,062,152. Number of People Fully Vaccinated = 218,235,689.
The U.S. is getting a first glimpse of what it’s like to experience COVID-19 outbreaks during this new phase of living with the virus, and the roster of the newly infected is studded with stars.
Cabinet members, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Broadway actors and the governors of New Jersey and Connecticut have all tested positive. Outbreaks at Georgetown University and Johns Hopkins University are bringing back mask requirements to those campuses as officials seek out quarantine space.
The outbreaks in the Northeast may — or may not — signal what’s to come, experts say. Case counts are no longer reliable because official testing and reporting has been scaled back and more Americans are testing at home.
Across the nation, mask-wearing is at its lowest level since April 2020, said Ali Mokdad, a professor of health metrics sciences at the University of Washington in Seattle. For every 100 infections, only seven are recorded in official tallies, according to his modeling group’s latest estimate.
Mokdad expects the high level of U.S. immunity built up from previous infections and vaccinations will protect the nation from a large surge.
“We’re going to have some infections here and there, but it’s not going to shut down the country,” Mokdad said. “Life has to go on. We have to be vaccinated and boosted. We need to protect the vulnerable, but we have to get used to it.”
Large indoor gatherings with masks optional have led to infections, with a high-profile party in Washington, D.C., now seen as a possible super-spreader event. Other infection clusters outside of groups that are regularly tested might go undetected, said Josh Michaud, associate director of global health policy with the Kaiser Family Foundation in Washington.
“It’s harder now than it was before to know what’s happening. The future is a little fuzzier because we don’t have as much information at our fingertips,” Michaud said. “If you’re not an actor in a Broadway play or a politician you might fall through the testing cracks.”
The public health response will vary from community to community based on what’s happening locally, Michaud said.
“We’re fighting smaller fires instead of a raging blaze across the country and those smaller fires can be disruptive,” Michaud said. “It leaves everyone to choose their own adventure when it comes to pandemic response and individual behaviors.”
In Washington D.C., the outbreak has been particularly high profile — striking multiple Cabinet secretaries and Congress members along with Mayor Muriel Bowser and the president of Georgetown University.
At least a dozen of those infections can be traced to the Gridiron Club dinner, an annual fixture of the D.C. social calendar that took place Saturday for the first time in three years. The dinner is an example of a return to near-total normality that’s taking place around the country, leading to a spike in positive tests, but not necessarily a corresponding spike in serious illnesses or hospitalizations.
Washington, D.C., like much of the rest of the country, has greatly relaxed its COVID stance in recent weeks. Bowser has allowed vaccination and indoor masking mandates to expire, and the city health department stopped reporting daily virus numbers in early March. Attendees at the Gridiron Club dinner, which Bowser did not attend, had to provide proof of vaccination, but otherwise no masking or social distancing protocols were observed.
And other staples of the D.C. social calendar are also back to normal. The city’s annual Cherry Blossom Festival has been going for weeks — with dozens of associated events, including a parade scheduled for Saturday.
Amid that general return to pre-pandemic behavior, there are a few cautionary steps backward. Georgetown University announced it would reintroduce its indoor mask mandate amid rising infection numbers that include university President John DeGioia
Georgetown’s Chief Public Health Officer Ranit Mishori, in announcing the new restrictions, described the infection spike as “significant” — particularly among undergraduates. “Thankfully, with the vast majority of our community up to date on vaccination, we are not seeing cases involving severe illness,” Mishori wrote.
D.C. health chief Dr. LaQuandra Nesbitt, in comments to reporters this week, has pointed to the ongoing low level of hospitalizations as proof that the vaccinations have successfully limited the severity of the illness.
Virus metrics in Washington have crept up in the past month according to the city health department. The weekly case rate per 100,000 residents climbed from 51 at the beginning of March to 110 at the end of March. But that’s still far below the weekly case rate of 865 per 100,000 residents reported in the second week of January during the omicron variant surge.
Nesbitt said there were no immediate plans to reinstitute any of the lapsed virus protocols, but that always remained an option in the future.
“We need to remember that living with the virus does not mean forgetting about the virus. It’s still out there, it’s still causing people to get sick and some people to die,” Michaud said. “If we’re not prepared, we could be in a bad situation quickly again.”
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AP writer Ashraf Khalil in Washington, D.C., contributed.
In the latest battle of the coronavirus mutants, an extra-contagious version of omicron has taken over the world.
The coronavirus version known as BA.2 is now dominant in at least 68 countries, including the United States.
The World Health Organization says it makes up about 94% of sequenced omicron cases submitted to an international coronavirus database in the most recent week. And the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says it was responsible for 72% of new U.S. infections last week.
Dr. Wesley Long, a pathologist at Houston Methodist in Texas, said he’s seen BA.2 quickly become dominant in his medical system. At the end of last week, the variant was responsible for more than three-quarters of cases in Houston Methodist hospitals. Less than two weeks earlier, 1% to 3% of cases were caused by BA.2.
“It’s not terribly surprising because it is more contagious” than the original omicron, Long said.
As the variant advances, scientists are learning more about it. But they still don’t know exactly how it will affect the trajectory of the pandemic.
WHAT’S KNOWN
BA.2 has lots of mutations. It’s been dubbed “stealth omicron” because it lacks a genetic quirk of the original omicron that allowed health officials to rapidly differentiate it from the delta variant using a certain PCR test.
One reason BA.2 has gained ground, scientists say, is that it’s about 30% more contagious than the original omicron. In rare cases, research shows it can sicken people even if they’ve already had an omicron infection — although it doesn’t seem to cause more severe disease.
Vaccines appear equally effective against both types of omicron. For both, vaccination plus a booster offers strong protection against severe illness and death.
HAS THE VARIANT PUSHED UP CASES?
Coronavirus cases rose in parts of Europe and Asia when BA.2 became dominant, and some scientists are concerned that the variant could also push up cases across the U.S.
Besides being more contagious, it’s spreading at a time when governments are relaxing restrictions designed to control COVID-19. Also, people are taking off their masks and getting back to activities such as traveling, eating indoors at restaurants and attending crowded events.
At this point, overall coronavirus cases in the U.S. are still on the decline. But there have been upticks in some places, including New York, Arizona and Illinois. Health officials have also noted that case counts are getting more unreliable because of the wide availability of home tests and the fact some people are no longer getting tested.
“We’re entering a phase where increasing cases or waves may be very regional and it may depend a lot on vaccination levels in the community — and not just vaccination levels but timing of the vaccinations,” Long said. “How long ago were they? Did people get boosters? Because we know the immunity to the vaccine wanes a little bit over time.”
Long said he feels “very certain” that cases will eventually go back up in the U.S., whether that’s because of BA.2 or some future variant. “If it’s BA.2,” he said, “it may be more of a wave or a speed bump than a surge.”
For now, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths are still trending down nationally.
ARE THERE ANY OTHER VARIANTS TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT?
As the coronavirus continues to evolve, the WHO is tracking other mutants, including hybrids known as “recombinants.”
These include combinations of delta and omicron and hybrids of BA.2 and the original omicron, also known as BA.1.
One recombinant that health authorities are tracking closely is a BA.1-BA.2 hybrid called XE, which was first detected in the United Kingdom in January. About 600 cases have been reported, and scientists believe it may be about 10% more contagious than BA.2.
WHAT SHOULD PEOPLE DO?
The advice from experts remains the same: Take precautions to avoid getting COVID-19.
“The virus is still out there circulating,” Long said. “Vaccination is still your best defense.”
Get the shots if you haven’t already, he said, and get the second booster if you’re eligible because you are 50 or older or have a compromised immune system.
“If cases start going up in your community, think about assessing your risk level,” Long said. “If you stopped masking and stopped worrying about distancing and things … that’s the time to reinstitute those protective measures.”
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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content.
